NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KDTX 231033
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
633 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018


.AVIATION...

Satellite would suggest variability in the depth of the fog layer
across Se Mi early this morning. From PTK up through FNT, the fog
may persist past 13Z given the depth indicated on satellite. As for
metro Detroit and MBS, the shallow nature of the fog and recent vsby
trends suggest visibility improvement by 12Z or shortly thereafter.
Otherwise, high pressure overhead will sustain clear skies and light
winds through the TAF period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

DISCUSSION...

Morning fog, especially north of I-69 where dense fog has developed
(issued dense fog advisory down to the M-59 corridor), will burn off
by mid morning as the late May sun goes to work. Dry and warm
stretch of weather will commence today as upper level ridge axis
advances into the Central Great Lakes region, arriving on Friday.
Large diurnal temperature swings in store, and with large surface
high (1022+ MB) lingering tonight, fog remains a possibility, as 00z
NAM condensation pressure deficits crash overnight, although NAM may
be a bit too aggressive and will just include patchy fog for now.

850 MB temps of 12 to 13 C today will support highs near 80 degrees.
Low to mid 80s on Thursday as low level southwest winds begin to
take hold and 850 MB temps reach and slightly exceed 14 C. Good warm
return flow around the high on Friday will support highs in the mid
to upper 80s as 850 MB temps reach and slightly exceed 17 C. Airmass
looks to remain relatively stable right through Friday. The airmass
will then destabilize over the weekend as height falls take place and
general troughing becomes established over the Great Lakes Region,
although bulk of upper level energy/disturbances to track through the
northern Great Lakes. None-the-less, sufficient instability/moisture
likely over southeast Michigan to lead to some shower and
thunderstorm activity, but coverage and timing remains problematic
this far out. Cold front still draped across far southern lower
Michigan on Monday will maintain the low chance, but large surface
high looks to build back in Monday evening into Tuesday, per 00z
Euro, providing another couple days of dry and warm weather.

MARINE...

Light west-northwest winds will occur across the lakes this morning
ahead of high pressure now centered over southern Lake Michigan.
Winds will become light and variable during the course of the
afternoon as this high expands across Lakes Huron and Erie. The high
will sustain light and variable winds into Thursday. As the high
drifts to the east coast by Friday and a slow moving front
approaches from the northwest, light south-southwest winds will
develop by Friday and will persist into the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......SC


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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion