NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KDTX 191000
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
600 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.AVIATION...

Dry low level environment within developing light southwest flow
will ensure VFR conditions through the taf period. Window of clear
sky this morning outside of patches of thicker cirrus, before
daytime heating again encourages the development of a broken
coverage of cu for the afternoon period. This cloud deck fades this
evening with loss of heating, leaving a period of clear skies again
for the overnight period. A greater surge of moisture will bring a
thickening/lowering cloud deck and rain showers on Wednesday.

For DTW...afternoon diurnal cu will carry cigs near 5000 ft.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling aob 5000 ft this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM / TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 310 AM EDT...Another quiet night continues across the region
with high pressure in control at the surface and stable, dry
northwest flow aloft. Earlier remnant altostratus from yesterday`s
diurnal heating has largely dissipated or exited east of southeast
Michigan, with most areas seeing a brief period of clearing. This
clearing will be short-lived however as patchy mid/high clouds
streaming eastward from shearing energy over the Plains helps limit
low temperatures to the mid/upper 20s.

Quiet and dry weather continues through tonight as the surface high
slowly drifts eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region. With the
surface high a bit further east, southwesterly return flow will be
slightly stronger today, albeit still light with gusts largely below
15 mph. Boundary layer profile will be similar to yesterday, and
feature well-mixed and steep low-level lapse rates that will
maximize some low-level moisture and result in bubbling stratocu
again during peak heating this afternoon and early evening. Should
still be a fair amount of sunshine mixed in with the clouds, and
high temperatures will easily reach well into the 40s, with upper
40s possible Detroit metro region and Saginaw Valley. Low
temperatures tonight will settle around freezing.

SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A ribbon of northern stream PV races south Tuesday night, as
shearing energy exiting east from the central Plains interacts and
helps spawn a weak surface low/inverted surface troughing for the
day Wednesday. Enough deeper column moisture will be present riding
the heels of a 40 kt LLJ to result in numerous light rain showers
primarily after noon Wednesday and persisting into the evening
hours. Overall rainfall amounts will be light and generally under a
quarter of an inch. The coverage of showers and cloudy skies will
keep temperatures from warming too significantly, but still
expecting highs into the mid/upper 40s. It will be breezy during the
day as well with southwest gusts peaking 20-30 mph. As temperatures
fall back into the 30s during the late evening hours, lingering
showers ahead of a cold front boundary diving south from the
northern Great Lakes may result in some wet snow mixing in at times,
with little to no accumulation. Low temperatures Wednesday night
will range from the low/mid 30s.

Brief period of dry weather Thursday as surface ridging attempts to
build northwestward into the region from the central Plains. This
will be short-lived as another northern stream wave dives southeast
across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night, with rain/snow
showers brushing areas closer to Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair.
Highs Thursday in the 40s with lows Thursday night in the low 30s.

LONG TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The long term portion of the forecast will be characterized by
highly amplified flow across North America, with a quasi Rex block
pattern setting up over the western CONUS heading into the weekend.
Southeast Michigan will be on the eastern side of strong upper-level
ridging resulting in a extended period of dry weather beginning
Friday and continuing through the weekend. The first day of spring
is Wednesday March 20th, and the weekend will shape up to be an
excellent start with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 50s.

MARINE...

High pressure will remain over the region today, ensuring quiet
weather with light winds and limited wave action in ice free areas.
Southwest winds will strengthen tonight into Wednesday as the
pressure gradient increases in advance of a cold front. Gusts will
peak near 25 knots on Wednesday across Saginaw Bay and into portions
of central lake Huron.  Winds shift to northwesterly and diminish
with the frontal passage Wednesday night. A more modest northwest to
west wind will then prevail Thursday. Potential exists for a period
of stronger northwest winds on Friday, leading to gusts to near
gales over portions of lake Huron.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...IRL
MARINE.......MR


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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion